Foreign Intervention in two civil wars
# Focus of the topic
- we are “evaluating the effect of foreing intervention on civil wars”,
- effectを示すのが不足しているっぽい
- こう言うsignificant factorがありましたという提示はまあまあできている（十分ではないかもだけど）
- ただ、それがsignificantだったという証拠が不足していた
- こういうeffectがありました、という説明
- もしくは、ベトナムで米軍撤退したらすぐnorthに占領されました、みたいな逆の証拠でも
# Background Info (Introduction)
- Spanish
- Unstalbe condition, power alterniting between 2 wings
- Proxy war between different ideologies
- Conflict of ideologies claimed a lot of international attention
- intervention of nations for each ideologies
- some other nations avoided the intervention
- Vietnam
- 1964 Gulf Of Tonkin, US officially entering the war
- mention about past US presidents
- Truman supporting French
- Eisenhower supporting the South and Diem
- maybe also talk about Kennedy
# Body
- Spanish
Nationalist support
- Right ideologies: Germany, Italy, Portugal
- Luftwaffe supported in the early stage
- Condor Legion carried tropps from Spanish Morocco to mainland Spain
- Also helpe bombing in northern reegions, which was crucial
- Italy supported 750 aircrafts, 150 tanks, 75000 troops
- Neutral state nations, US and Britain
- support to small extent, allowed use of Gibraltar
- Therefore: gained large benefit.
Republican support
- In contrast, gained samll support from USSR (left)
- difference of support gained, so affected the outcome
- USSR,
- supporting communist movements
- sold some weapons to Republican gov.
- asked to pay for support/resources, while Nationalists got for free
- However, amount of support was much smaller than Nationalists.
- sold some weapons to Republican gov.
- Reduced amount of support after 1938, when Reps weakiening
- 1936: 500 aircraft, 1938: 0 aircraft
- supporting communist movements
- International Brigades from nations
- supporters of left ideologies, from US, Germany, etc
- not trained, did not significantly helped
- Therefore, lesser support, difference of support affected the defeat of Republicans.
Other factors
- Strength of Nationalist themselves against Reps. were more significant?
- Strong leadership
- military unified under Franco
- Contrast: Reps no leadership
- extreme anarachist vs moderate communist May Day internal fight.
- Economically stable than Republicans
- Controlled areas with rich food production
- Vietnam
P1: US intervention
- talk about “why did america didnt win, even with this amount of support”
- = had small effect to the war
- Kennedy and Johnson (especially Johnson)
- weakness
- us forces do not know land
- could not get coorporation from
- talk about “why did america didnt win, even with this amount of support”
P2: Communist Intervention
https://alphahistory.com/vietnamwar/chinese-and-soviet-involvement/#Early_Soviet_attitudes
- (still not publicly released much, so difficult to find)
- before the 2nd civil war
- Stalin in the first civil war: not much support, but did gave german weapons
- China gave some support of weapons etc
- after the gulf of tonkin
- chinese support also escalated
- while us broke buildings by the Rolling Thunder, china gave construction support
- also send troops to protect North Vietnam instead, so that NVA could fight in the South Vietnam
- Soviet Union
- leader changed to Brezhnev
- Kosygin visit to South Vietnam
- sending alot of weapons later
- by the late 1960s, more than three quarters of the military and technical equipment received by North Vietnam was coming from the Soviet Union.
- also, it was not load, but aid (provided for free)
- chinese support also escalated
P3: Other factors
- wekaness of ARVN
- popularity of Ho
- unpopularity of Diem,
- Effectiveness of gurellia warfare
