Foreign Intervention in two civil wars

Last updated Dec 16, 2022 Edit Source

• we are “evaluating the effect of foreing intervention on civil wars”,
• effectを示すのが不足しているっぽい
  • こう言うsignificant factorがありましたという提示はまあまあできている（十分ではないかもだけど）
  • ただ、それがsignificantだったという証拠が不足していた
    • こういうeffectがありました、という説明
    • もしくは、ベトナムで米軍撤退したらすぐnorthに占領されました、みたいな逆の証拠でも

• Spanish
  • Unstalbe condition, power alterniting between 2 wings
  • Proxy war between different ideologies
  • Conflict of ideologies claimed a lot of international attention
  • intervention of nations for each ideologies
    • some other nations avoided the intervention
• Vietnam
  • 1964 Gulf Of Tonkin, US officially entering the war
  • mention about past US presidents
    • Truman supporting French
    • Eisenhower supporting the South and Diem
    • maybe also talk about Kennedy

• Spanish

  • Nationalist support

    • Right ideologies: Germany, Italy, Portugal
    • Luftwaffe supported in the early stage
      • Condor Legion carried tropps from Spanish Morocco to mainland Spain
      • Also helpe bombing in northern reegions, which was crucial
    • Italy supported 750 aircrafts, 150 tanks, 75000 troops
    • Neutral state nations, US and Britain
      • support to small extent, allowed use of Gibraltar
    • Therefore: gained large benefit.

  • Republican support

    • In contrast, gained samll support from USSR (left)
    • difference of support gained, so affected the outcome
    • USSR,
      • supporting communist movements
        • sold some weapons to Republican gov.
          • asked to pay for support/resources, while Nationalists got for free
        • However, amount of support was much smaller than Nationalists.
      • Reduced amount of support after 1938, when Reps weakiening
        • 1936: 500 aircraft, 1938: 0 aircraft
    • International Brigades from nations
      • supporters of left ideologies, from US, Germany, etc
      • not trained, did not significantly helped
    • Therefore, lesser support, difference of support affected the defeat of Republicans.

  • Other factors

    • Strength of Nationalist themselves against Reps. were more significant?
    • Strong leadership
      • military unified under Franco
      • Contrast: Reps no leadership
        • extreme anarachist vs moderate communist May Day internal fight.
    • Economically stable than Republicans
      • Controlled areas with rich food production
• Vietnam

  • P1: US intervention

    • talk about “why did america didnt win, even with this amount of support”
      • = had small effect to the war
    • Kennedy and Johnson (especially Johnson)
    • 
    • weakness
      • us forces do not know land
      • could not get coorporation from

  • P2: Communist Intervention

  • https://alphahistory.com/vietnamwar/chinese-and-soviet-involvement/#Early_Soviet_attitudes

    • (still not publicly released much, so difficult to find)
    • before the 2nd civil war
      • Stalin in the first civil war: not much support, but did gave german weapons
      • China gave some support of weapons etc
    • after the gulf of tonkin
      • chinese support also escalated
        • while us broke buildings by the Rolling Thunder, china gave construction support
        • also send troops to protect North Vietnam instead, so that NVA could fight in the South Vietnam
      • Soviet Union
        • leader changed to Brezhnev
        • Kosygin visit to South Vietnam
        • sending alot of weapons later
          • by the late 1960s, more than three quarters of the military and technical equipment received by North Vietnam was coming from the Soviet Union.
          • also, it was not load, but aid (provided for free)

  • P3: Other factors

    • wekaness of ARVN
    • popularity of Ho
      • unpopularity of Diem,
    • Effectiveness of gurellia warfare
      • Use content of “Guerilla warfare in two civil wars” outline