End of the Cold War

Last updated Dec 16, 2022 Edit Source

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YMngTYDfph8jR8qgwcOMQ0Q6UwThMX4gDzQHrzpgmk8/edit

• ここに三つの大事な出来事がまとまっている

• Confrontation and Reconcilation
  • confrontして勝ったから終わった vs Rencocileで和解したから終わった
• もしくは、factors (ideological, political, etc)
• どっちが問われても良いようにすべき

USSR Dissolve in 1991

• Confrontation
  • USSR econ stagnating, inefficient command econ, 25% GDP per capita of USA
  • 1980 oil prices fall, indebted to west reaches $2.5 billion
  • Arms Race: USSR cannot keep up with USA spending. 20% of GDP spent on weapons, vs. USA 5%. Must reduce arms spending or lower living standards
  • Perestroika: restructuring of economy; de-centralization, allows some private business, no more price-controls
  • Effects: Unemployment increases, prices increase, living standards fall dramatically.
  • Reduced support for Gorbachev, more support for independence movements (want more radical change), or communist hardliners (want to maintain old system)
• Social issues
  • Glasnost, Effects (focus on nationalist movements)
  • USSR 15 “independent” republics, but politically dominated by Russians
  • Some Republics (Baltics, Caucuses) forcibly part of USSR
  • Glasnost (openness): allows people to address national issues, censorship ending exposes Soviet crimes, massacres, of minority groups
  • Effects: Baltic states (latvia, lithuania, estonia) declare independence in 1990, Gorbachev uses force to put down rebellions.
  • Tensions about nationalism, Gorbachev proposes “New Union Treaty”, gives more independence to republics Dissolution of USSR (August Coup, formation of CIS)
• Econo
  • Conservative communists reject the treaty as too radical, would break USSR
  • Launch “August Coup” 1991, take over gov, Gorbachev hostage
  • Boris Yeltsin - Leader of Russia, Republic, protests against coup, rallies popular support in Moscow, coup fails
  • Clear that Gorbachev and Communists are not in control, lost support, Second most important republic, Ukraine votes for independence, followed by Russia and Belarus.
• USSR voluntarily disbands, Gorbachev resigns, CIS (Commonwealth of Indepdant States) of the 15 republics forms.

How did the Arms Race come to an end? •Reagan’s new Cold War (SDI, Evil Empire, Reagan Doctrine) New Cold War:ending the detente (lasts until 1985) Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI):An anti-ballistic missile program, shooting down missiles in space, “Star Wars” Evil Empire (1983):Reagan referring USSR to an evil empire, increasing ideological tension Reagan Doctrine:The concept was to stop the spread of communism before it could attack a country, Reagan sent troops to Grenada to stop a communist invasion, supporting anti-communist fighters in Afghanistan

•Renewed Détente (Afghanistan, China) Afghanistan (1986):Gorbachev withdrew his troops from Afghanistan as their foreign policy did not work, replacement of president (Mohammed Najibullah) China:PRC frontiers and Soviet troops were reduced, relation fully restored •End of Arms race (arms reduction treaties, conferences) START treaty(1991):LImited the number of ICBMs and nuclear warhead that can be possessed Warsaw Pact and NATO me to sign the treaty on conventional armed force in Europe:reduction of weapons in Europe Annual meetings to prevent conflicts

Why did Communism collapse in Eastern Europe by 1990? (Shutaro) (Textbook p267-) •Economic and Political conditions of Eastern Europe by 1980’s 2 Types of nations Type 1:Poland/Hungary/Bulgaria Proactive to proceed limited political and economic reform Type 2:GDR, Czechslovakia, Romania, Albania Unwilling to proceed reforms (Ignored Yugoslavia, irregular) •Revolution of Type 1: Impact of Gorbachev’s reforms (end Brezhnev doctrine) Gorbachev ending Brezhnev doctorine 1989 Aimed to maintain Soviet security at Eastern Europe by negotiation and cooperation, not by force. Pol/Hun/Bul: Revolutionary changes occurred with negotiation with ruling communists Ex: Poland: (negotiation) Issues such as Indebted economic situation and corrupted government and industry existed Due to this, people forced government to legalize Solidarity. Solidarity and PUWP(communists) agreed to allow Solidarity to compete for 35% of seats in the lower parliament However, election proved the popularity of Solidarity, and government got transformed to a regime led by Solidarity Important: Gorbachev did not oppose this entire process, and Poland remained in Warsaw Pact Known as “Negotiated revolutions” •Revolution of Type 2: Impact of opening of Berlin Wall Berlin Wall opened 1989/11/9 GDR/CzSl/Rom/Alb: Ex: Germany: Leipzig demonstrations 1989 9/25-10/16 Non-violent protestors Non-violent governments Support of Soviet Union wasn’t provided to communists Led to replacement of Honecker by Krenz Accidental opening of Berlin Wall Crowds gathered at the border on 11/9 Ex: Romania: Ceausescu was unpopular due to his failure of economic/political policies. Opening of Berlin Wall induced the revolution The first revolts at Timisoara 1989/12/9 Army sided the people Soviet Union did not intervene. Ceausescu fled the capital, but got executed on 12/22 National Salvation Front (left-side party) was then formed, and gained majority in elections. Communist remained in power after democratic elections, as Gorbachev hoped. There were unexpected revolutions for the Soviet Union

• Confrontation

  • Confrontation led to reconcilliation
  • Renewed arms race
    • SDI
    • Too costly for Soviets
    • TODO: Get numbers

• Reconcilliation

  • Gorbachev + Regan
    • Summits, not many aggreements but met frequenty
  • Glasnost + Perestroika
  • Sattelite States
    • First Hungary
    • Fall of berlin wall

• 雑記

  • Historiography
    • Orthodox: USA won the confrontation after strong pressures and superior economy and arms
      • Regan gets credit for strongly defeating the USSR
    • Revisionist: No one won the Cold War, but they reconciled their differences and ended the amrs race
      • Gorbachev gets credit for chosing to stop the conflict early
  • Gorbachev
    • USSR had problems, but wasnt in critical crisis
      • so no need for reforms, but he did it to imrpove lives of people
      • Economic: Perestroika - de-centralize the economy
        • problems: inefficient, corrupt, stagnation (no growth)
          • Oil Crisis also dameged the economy
            • 1970s
        • aimed to decentralize the economy
        • instead of central government controlling, local Soviets made their own decisions
          • each Soviets decided how much to charge for products
        • also, allowed little Privatization
          • taxis, kiosks, salons, markets, cafes
      • Social: Glasnost - Allow freedom of speech
        • No freedom of speech, religion, etc, people were tired
        • Also, nationalist movement requested more autonomy
        • So, allowed openness in 1986
          • News showing truth, anti-communist literatures published
          • Western Cultures allowed: rock music, movies, fasion, etc
          • Nationalist problems allowed to discuss
            • HOWEVER, no independence was allowed
      • Political: Demokrazatsia: Real competitive elections with multiple parties
        • Old anti-reform politicians opposed Gorbachev, so he needed more supporters
        • So, tried to bring more democracy
          • Congress of People’s Deputies formed in 1988
          • New position of President created in 1990, elected by people
      • Foreing Policy
        • たぶんここがessay的に大事？
        • Abandoned marxist views of “class struggle” and “world revolution”
        • Ends Brezhnev doctorine
          • Brezhnev: “USSR will intervene militarily to protect communist mesaures, in influence sphere”
          • Golbachev ended this
        • WIthdraw from Afghanistan

? To what extent was confrontation rather than reconciliation the contributing factor for the end of the Cold War?